Sorbara's numbers don't add up

Over the past few weeks, many activists have been urging the government of Ontario to increase its minimum wage to $10/hr. The Liberal government will instead only be increasing it to $8/hr on February 1st. Part of the reason for this, according to Finance Minister Greg Sorbara, is that employers would simply decrease hours, lay off workers, and refrain from hiring new workers as a result. This, he claims, would cost Ontario 66,000 jobs. However, the Star has recently crunched the numbers, and Sorbara's math just doesn't add up.

If his methodology is correct to predict the future, than it is also safe to assume that it should be a reasonable indicator of the past. That, however, is simply not the case. If his math doesn't explain the past, we shouldn't let his fear mongering alter our opinions of how the future will look. Thus, it is imperative that the debate over a $10/hr minimum wage continues on, and hopefully becomes an election issue this fall.

"And under Sorbara's assumptions, that means there should have been at least 988,927 employed young workers in 2003. But that many jobs failed to materialize in that period. In 2003, there were actually only 934,700 jobs for young Ontarians, a shortfall of about 54,000 young workers from the number Sorbara's methods predicted there should be. So if his methodology came up 54,000 jobs short in predicting the effect of a 15.4 per cent real wage decline, why should the people of Ontario believe his forecast of as many as 66,000 job losses under a 25 per cent real wage increase? "