Yet another challenge for the Ontario NDP- Buzz Hargrove

Premier Dalton McGuinty is scheduled to speak to the Canadian Auto Workers council at the union's conference centre in Port Elgin, and is the first Ontario premier to do so (not even Bob Rae spoke there). This could potentially be disastrous for the Ontario NDP, as the CAW executive, once staunchly pro-NDP, has become much more pragmatic over the past few years, and a formal endorsement for the Liberals isn't too far out of the realm of possibility. Part of the problem is Howard Hampton, a leader who the CAW has never really warmed up to (and for good reason). Additionally, giving Hargove the old heave ho' from the party certainly did little to help steer the relationship between the NDP and the CAW in a positive direction.

Asked this week whether he could see himself sharing a platform with McGuinty during the election campaign, Hargrove responded: "Of course," adding, "He (McGuinty) is the only political leader in the province or in the country who understands the importance of the manufacturing sector, especially the auto industry."

You can read Ian Urquahrt's column here, but I think it paints too rosy of a picture for the dippers, but does provide some analysis (especially of the Windsor ridings).

For example, he states "There is, of course, no guarantee that Hargrove's views will translate into rank-and-file support for the Liberals in the provincial election. Many CAW members remain card-carrying New Democrats as individuals, notwithstanding their union's departure from the fold, and past loyalties die hard."

Are you kidding me Ian? The exact opposite is true. Years and years of CAW support for the NDP has done little in terms of member support translating into seats, save a few industrial area ridings. The biggest benefit the NDP has recieved has been paid CAW staff working for the party and numerous other volunteers, which they now don't recieve as a result of giving Hargrove the boot. However, many, perhaps even most CAW members don't vote NDP anyways. For example my riding, St. Catharines, has never been won by an NDP (not even in 1990), despite the fact we have a CAW local which, in its hayday had well over 6 000 members working at GM alone. Local 199 still remains strong (having organized other workplaces) and is still one of the CAW locals still formally affiliated with the NDP. That being said, institutional links between the NDP and CAW have not always translated into seats. In fact, one of the reasons why Hargrove began to question the CAW-NDP alliance was fueled by the fact that most autoworkers don't support the NDP ('let's be honest with where we're at' Hargrove stated at the 2002 CLC convention).

A CAW endorsement of the Liberals is potentially disastrous for the NDP. A lot of CAW members vote Liberal anyways, but a formal endorsement by Buzz certainly wouldn't hurt the Liberals.