Analysis of the Quebec Election

Via a 'P.S.' on an e-mail, a colleague remarked that the national election in Quebec was interesting. I dropped a quick response....

Quebec has definately undergone a political realignment. And in all likelihood, M. Charest and M. Boisclair will be replaced. The ADQ has (unfortunately in my mind) has made some huge gains in the past few years.

When asked for some more feedback, and what the future might hold, I said....

I don't think that, at this point, Quebeckers aren't even exactly aware of what they see in their own political future. This current political situation seems to parallel the one we have at the federal situation, in which a clear 'governing' party has yet to emerge. In fact, it might take a little while for Qubeckers to figure out exactly what it is that they desire in their political future.

Despite forming a minority government, I think the Liberals are the biggest losers coming out of this election. Their vote percentage dropped significantly (13%), presumably with most of that support going to the ADQ. The question now is what can the Parti liberal offer Quebec voters that they can't get elsewhere?

It's fair to say that the political spectrum has shifted to the right. The PQ has moved away from their social democratic beginnings, though we could still see them as centre-left, and the only party to occupy this position. They'll also have their sovereignist base, and with centre-left support, will always be contenders. The ADQ is decidely right-wing (so are the Liberals), though the ADQ is much more nationalist than the Liberals. And really, most all Quebecers are nationalist at some level (with the exception of a few hardline English federalists). The ADQ won't lose any points on that end.

Another friend of mine has suggested that the new situation will likely parallel the old bleus vs. rouges two-party system, in that the ADQ is very similar to the old Union Nationale (bleus). However, the 'rouges' will not be Quiet Revolution nationalist liberals, but instead, the PQ.

I think the ADQ will continue to attract Liberal voters who are one the right-wing of the political spectrum and who are more nationalist than the Liberal platrform allows for. On the other hand, I can see the Liberals becoming an anglophone/allophone party concentrated primarily in Montreal and the southern Ottawa valley. As I've mentioned, the PQ will always have its soverignist base, and as long as it remains centre-left, will have a core base of progressive support.

This minority national assembly won't last too long. I suspect it will be on an issue by issue basis, and another election will be called in a year or so. I'm not even sure if at that point Quebeckers will know what they want. That being said, they'll be able to see what the ADQ can do with additional power, and the Liberals will have everything to lose in the coming months (hopefully this includes their leader).

As far as what I see, or better put, what I'd like to see, it's more Qubec Solidaire MNAs. They finished a strong second in two ridings in Montreal this time around (to PQ incumbents). While winning those ridings might be hard, they are the party that I'd cast a vote for if I lived in Quebec.

from: http://www.cbc.ca/quebecvotes2007/parties/qs.html
It's one of the few English resources on QS....

"Founded on principles of sovereignty, feminism, social equality, pluralism and ecology, Québec Solidaire wants to position itself as a viable left-wing alternative to the Parti Québécois."