Ontario By-Elections: Markham, Burlington, and York South-Western

February 8th, 2007 marks the occurrence of three by-elections in Ontario in Markham, York South-Weston, and Burlington. These elections should provide some good insight into the parties strengths and weaknesses heading into this fall's general election. Star columnist Ian Urquhart has provided his insight here.

Burlington is solid blue Tory, and that's going to be a hands down victory. My prediction is 45-49%.

Markham is an affluent 905 riding, and will definitely be taken by one of the bourgeoisie parties, and it will most likely be the Liberals. This riding has been kind to the Grits in the past, and I'm predicting they'll win it again with between 42-46% of the vote.

The most intriguing riding is York South-Weston. Recently it's been very kind to the Liberals (over 61% in the 2003 provincial election), but the NDP have had some success in the past. In fact, both Donald MacDonald, Bob Rae, and David Lewis all once called this riding home. I firmly the believe the NDP need to find a way to reinvigorate class based politics, and there's not a better riding to do in it than York South-Western. First, it's been kind to the New Democrats in the past, so voters are open to the party. Secondly, it has the second lowest household income and the ninth lowest rate of home ownership. A riding of poor and property less workers...this is exactly what the NDP needs to focus on. The people of this riding really are, or at least should be, the NDP's constituency; forget about the move toward neo-liberalism and appeals to the business communities and bourgeoisie. This riding is also dominated by Italian, Portuguese and Spanish labourers. Clearly, the NDP has got to see this riding as place in which they can achieve some success. That being said, I don't see the NDP winning this riding, at least not in this election. I'm predicting the Liberals win with 39-43% of the vote, and the NDP finish a strong(ish) second. But, if the NDP decides to move back to a focus on class based politics, then I think that this is a riding they can take. In fact, one they should take. But a move to class based politics, that's probably unlikely, and that's a shame.